Ming Jie (chasingred) wrote in anti_nader,
Ming Jie


Went over to the inimitable Brad Delong blog (Berkeley professor in tha house) and read something rather interesting.

Republican pollster guru, Luntz Spliz, predicts a Kerry win. This coming from the man who was the amazing strategist that helped mastermind Gingrich's Republican takeover of the 1994 Congress elections (much like Karl Rove's ingenious 2002 Congress takeover):
The Gadflyer: Luntz Spliz by Thomas Schaller
So I'm at the event sponsored by Democratic Gain tonight (Sunday) at Avalon -- the nightclub located directly across the street from centerfield at Fenway -- when I spot GOP focus-group guru Frank Luntz . . . soon enough Frank is standing all by himself, right behind me . . .

Anyway, Luntz seems a bit tipsy, but there he is, a few feet away. I cannot resist.

"What do you think?" I ask him, in a tone that indicates that I'm not talking about last night's Sox-Yankees brawl.

"Kerry will win," he says. I feel myself jump back slightly.

"Wow," I say. "How can you be so sure?"

"Bush's numbers on the war are bad, and it's spreading."

I follow-up: "So, it's that simple -- 'It's the war, stupid'?"

"Well, not that simple . . . but basically, yes."

"Ok, then, so what's the save-all scenario for Bush? Is there some way he manages to pull it out?"

"Only by making Kerry look bad, inconsistent."

"The flip-flopper thing," I say, seeking clarification.

"Yes," Luntz said. "But even that may not do it."

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I offer two clarifiers. First, I did not mention to Luntz that we were on the record, no less for a progressive webzine. And, two, Luntz seemed to be . . . .well, he seemed a bit tipsy. But, hey, en vino veritas, kiddies. What happens in Boston does not stay in Boston.

And in my own defense, all I asked was -- "What do you think?" . . . The point is that Luntz knew what I meant, and meant what he said.
This is somewhat of a cute dinner table story, but I'll stick with Ray Fair's statistical model that has successfully predicted five of the last six Presidential elections. That's coming from one of those Blue Ivy Yale academics too.

Russell Roberts has a more simple approach on predicting who wins Presidential elections: ask yourself, who would you rather have a beer with? This, as Roberts points out, is much different than asking who you would rather have dinner with. His model, albeit somewhat humorous, has successfully predicted the last thirteen Presidential elections. The only disagreement I have is with the Eisenhower vs. Stevenson election, where I might consider eating pork rinds soaked in beer and mayo if I could have a casual time with that man.
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